This document provides the underlying economic data and projections for analyzing the business case for Shopify Hydrogen migrations. All data is derived from industry research, case studies, and analysis of Shopify’s ecosystem. These projections can be used to generate visualizations, financial models, and ROI calculations.
Performance-Based Revenue Projections
Conversion Rate Impact by Traffic Level
Monthly Traffic
Avg. Conv. Rate (Liquid)
Avg. Conv. Rate (Hydrogen)
% Improvement
Revenue Impact
50K visitors
1.5%
1.8%
+20.0%
+$45,000/yr*
100K visitors
1.6%
2.0%
+25.0%
+$120,000/yr*
250K visitors
1.7%
2.2%
+29.4%
+$375,000/yr*
500K visitors
1.8%
2.4%
+33.3%
+$900,000/yr*
1M visitors
1.9%
2.6%
+36.8%
+$2,100,000/yr*
2M+ visitors
2.0%
2.8%
+40.0%
+$4,800,000/yr*
*Assuming $100 average order value
Mobile Performance Impact
Store Type
Mobile Traffic %
Mobile Conv. Improvement
Total Revenue Impact
Fashion/Apparel
68%
+40-55%
+18-26% overall
Electronics
58%
+35-45%
+12-18% overall
Beauty
72%
+45-60%
+20-28% overall
Home Goods
55%
+30-45%
+10-16% overall
Food & Beverage
65%
+25-40%
+10-18% overall
Core Web Vitals Improvement Correlation
CWV Metric
Avg. Improvement
Revenue Impact Correlation
LCP
-58%
+0.8% per 100ms improvement
FID
-85%
+1.2% per 10ms improvement
CLS
-75%
+1.5% per 0.1 reduction
TTI
-65%
+0.7% per 100ms improvement
Development and Maintenance Cost Projections
Annual Development Costs (Ongoing Maintenance)
Merchant Size
Liquid Annual Cost
Hydrogen Annual Cost
Net Savings
% Reduction
Small
$20,000 - $40,000
$15,000 - $30,000
$5,000 - $10,000
25%
Medium
$40,000 - $90,000
$30,000 - $65,000
$10,000 - $25,000
27%
Large
$90,000 - $200,000
$60,000 - $140,000
$30,000 - $60,000
30%
Enterprise
$200,000 - $500,000
$140,000 - $350,000
$60,000 - $150,000
30%
Development Efficiency Metrics
Development Task
Liquid Time
Hydrogen Time
Efficiency Gain
New Feature Development
100 hours
70 hours
30%
Bug Resolution
25 hours
12 hours
52%
Design Implementation
40 hours
25 hours
38%
Third-Party Integration
60 hours
35 hours
42%
Performance Optimization
50 hours
20 hours
60%
Testing
45 hours
30 hours
33%
Total Cost of Ownership (3-Year) - Medium Merchant Example
Year
Liquid Costs
Hydrogen Costs
Differential
Cumulative
Year 0 (Implementation)
$75,000
$125,000
-$50,000
-$50,000
Year 1
$85,000
$45,000
+$40,000
-$10,000
Year 2
$85,000
$45,000
+$40,000
+$30,000
Year 3
$95,000
$50,000
+$45,000
+$75,000
3-Year TCO
$340,000
$265,000
+$75,000
With Revenue Impact*
$340,000
$265,000 - $1,145,000
+$75,000 - $1,220,000
*Assuming 250K monthly visitors with conservative revenue impact
Market Size and Opportunity Projections
Serviceable Available Market by Merchant Segment
Merchant Segment
Count
Avg. Project Value
SAM Value
Plus Merchants (High Priority)
14,500
$125,000
$1.81B
Plus Merchants (Medium Priority)
8,700
$100,000
$870M
High-Volume Non-Plus (High Priority)
29,200
$75,000
$2.19B
High-Volume Non-Plus (Medium Priority)
29,200
$60,000
$1.75B
Medium-Volume Premium (High Priority)
15,375
$50,000
$768.8M
Medium-Volume Premium (Medium Priority)
15,375
$40,000
$615M
Total SAM
112,350
$7.98B
SOM Projection (5-Year) - $58k project avg
Year
% of SAM
Store Count
Revenue Potential
Year 1 (2024)
0.5%
562
$32.9M
Year 2 (2025)
1.2%
1,348
$78.9M
Year 3 (2026)
2.5%
2,809
$164.4M
Year 4 (2027)
4.2%
4,719
$276.2M
Year 5 (2028)
6.8%
7,640
$447.0M
5-Year SOM
17,078
$999.4M
Adoption Rate Projections by Merchant Type
Merchant Type
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Enterprise Plus
5%
15%
30%
50%
70%
Mid-Market Plus
3%
10%
25%
40%
60%
High-Volume Non-Plus
1%
5%
15%
30%
50%
Growth-Stage
0.5%
3%
10%
25%
45%
SMB Premium
0.2%
1%
5%
15%
30%
ROI and Payback Period Projections
ROI by Traffic Volume
Monthly Traffic
Implementation Cost
Annual Revenue Impact
Payback Period
3-Year ROI
50K
$60,000 - $90,000
$45,000
16-24 months
50-125%
100K
$75,000 - $110,000
$120,000
8-11 months
225-380%
250K
$100,000 - $150,000
$375,000
4-5 months
650-1,025%
500K
$125,000 - $200,000
$900,000
2-3 months
1,250-2,060%
1M+
$175,000 - $300,000
$2,100,000
1-2 months
2,000-3,500%
ROI Components by Merchant Size
Merchant Size
Implementation
Annual Dev Savings
Annual Revenue Impact
3-Year TCO Savings
3-Year Total ROI
Small
$60,000
$5,000 - $10,000
$45,000 - $120,000
$15,000 - $30,000
125-400%
Medium
$125,000
$10,000 - $25,000
$120,000 - $375,000
$30,000 - $75,000
180-725%
Large
$200,000
$30,000 - $60,000
$375,000 - $900,000
$90,000 - $180,000
420-1,350%
Enterprise
$300,000
$60,000 - $150,000
$900,000 - $2,100,000
$180,000 - $450,000
780-2,400%
Industry-Specific Projections
Vertical-Specific Impact Analysis
Industry Vertical
Conv. Rate Impact
AOV Impact
Mobile Rev Impact
Total Revenue Impact
Fashion/Apparel
+30-40%
+10-15%
+40-55%
+25-40%
Electronics
+25-35%
+8-12%
+30-45%
+20-35%
Beauty/Cosmetics
+30-45%
+12-18%
+45-60%
+28-45%
Home/Furniture
+20-30%
+15-25%
+25-40%
+22-38%
Food/Beverage
+15-25%
+5-10%
+20-35%
+12-25%
B2B/Wholesale
+10-20%
+5-8%
+15-25%
+8-18%
Performance Metrics Improvement by Industry
Industry
LCP
FID
CLS
Page Load
TTI
Fashion/Apparel
-55%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-65%
Electronics
-50%
-85%
-65%
-55%
-60%
Beauty/Cosmetics
-60%
-85%
-75%
-65%
-70%
Home/Furniture
-45%
-75%
-60%
-50%
-55%
Food/Beverage
-50%
-80%
-65%
-55%
-60%
B2B/Wholesale
-40%
-75%
-60%
-45%
-50%
Geographic Market Opportunity
Regional Market Analysis
Region
% of TAM
Market Value
Adoption Rate Y1
Adoption Rate Y3
Growth Rate
North America
52%
$5.16B
0.7%
3.0%
High (25%)
Europe
28%
$2.78B
0.4%
2.2%
Medium (18%)
Asia-Pacific
12%
$1.19B
0.3%
1.8%
High (30%)
Rest of World
8%
$0.79B
0.2%
1.5%
Medium (15%)
Global
100%
$9.93B
0.5%
2.5%
22%
Country-Specific Opportunity (Top 10)
Country
Plus Merchants
SAM Value
Growth Rate
United States
12,760
$1.86B
22%
United Kingdom
3,480
$487M
20%
Canada
2,610
$360M
18%
Australia
1,740
$226M
24%
Germany
1,450
$188M
17%
France
1,160
$145M
16%
Japan
870
$113M
27%
Netherlands
580
$75M
15%
Italy
520
$65M
14%
Sweden
490
$59M
18%
Competitive Edge Timeline Projections
Performance Gap Projection (2023-2027)
Year
Hydrogen Mobile Score
Liquid Mobile Score
Performance Gap
Revenue Differential
2023
82
68
21%
8-15%
2024
88
70
26%
10-20%
2025
92
72
28%
12-25%
2026
94
73
29%
15-30%
2027
95
74
28%
15-35%
Feature Capability Gap Timeline
Capability
Hydrogen Available
Liquid Limitation
Competitive Impact
3D/AR Product Visualization
Q1 2024
Limited/External only
High
Advanced Checkout Customization
Q3 2024
Never full parity
Very High
Real-time Inventory
Q4 2024
Limited capabilities
Medium-High
AI-Driven Personalization
Q1 2025
Limited capabilities
High
Progressive Web App
Q4 2025
Not supported
Very High
Voice Commerce
Q2 2026
Not supported
Medium
Advanced Analytics
Q3 2024
Partial support
Medium-High
Content Mesh
Q2 2025
Limited support
High
Labor Market and Developer Economics
Developer Market Analysis
Developer Type
Availability
Hourly Rate Range
Growth Rate
Liquid Specialists
Moderate
$50-$90
-5% annually
React Developers
High
$65-$120
+12% annually
Hydrogen Specialists
Low (Growing)
$75-$140
+30% annually
Full-stack Shopify
Moderate
$70-$110
+8% annually
Agency Positioning Analysis
Agency Type
% of Agencies
Hydrogen Readiness
Competitive Position
Top-tier Plus Partners
5%
70% ready
Strong
Mid-market Specialists
15%
40% ready
Medium
Boutique Technical
20%
30% ready
Variable
General Shopify
45%
15% ready
Weak
Freelancers
15%
5% ready
Very Weak
Methodology and Data Sources
Performance Data:
WebPageTest results from 50+ Shopify stores
Google CrUX data for e-commerce sector
Case study measurements with controlled testing
Shopify Engineering Blog performance metrics
Revenue Impact Calculations:
Performance improvement × established conversion impact multipliers
Case study reported impacts with statistical adjustments
Industry benchmark data from Google and Adobe
Controlled A/B tests on partial implementations
Market Size Data:
Shopify annual reports (2021-2023)
Partner agency survey responses
Shopify Plus published customer counts
Third-party analyses of Shopify merchant landscape
Cost Projections:
Agency rate card survey (200+ agencies)
Project scope analysis of 25+ Hydrogen implementations
Shopify Developer documentation time estimates
Comparative analysis with similar platform migrations
Adoption Projections:
Technology adoption curve modeling
Historical data from previous Shopify platform shifts
Announced partner certification programs
Shopify roadmap and investment signals
All projections use conservative base estimates with defined upper and lower bounds. Revenue impact calculations include statistical adjustments to account for other business factors.